These results can be used by either bettors or bookmakers wanting to increase their odds of success in the gaming industry.īookmakers set over/under lines for virtually all NFL games. That is, we test to see if the variables we have collected and formulated are important in predicting the betting line for NFL games. We also estimate a single equation to predict the over/under line for individual games. Using this methodology, we find that several successful wagering strategies could have been applied to the 2010-2011 NFL season. All predictions in this paper are out-of-sample-meaning that all of the information necessary for the predictions was available before the games were played. The sum of the predictions for the home and away teams computed from the regression equations (updated weekly) are then compared to the over/under line on individual NFL games in a wagering experiment to determine if a successful betting strategy can be identified. Separate regression equations are identified for predicting points for the home and away teams in individual games based on information known prior to the games. In this paper we attempt to predict the total points scored in National Football League (NFL) games for the 2010-2011 season.
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